Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys - NFL Prediction (2026-09-20)
Win probabilities
Washington Commanders Dallas CowboysWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
Washington Commanders Dallas CowboysLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
Washington Commanders- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB45.4%
- Terry McLaurin WR31.4%
- Jayden Daniels QB29.2%
- Stefon Diggs WR28.5%
- Rachaad White RB27.1%
- Antonio Williams WR18.5%
- John Bates TE13.5%
- Kaytron Allen RB12.2%
- Ben Sinnott TE10.1%
- Dyami Brown WR7.8%
- Jaylin Lane WR6.1%
- Luke McCaffrey WR4.8%
- Treylon Burks WR4.1%
Dallas Cowboys- Javonte Williams RB55.4%
- CeeDee Lamb WR41.2%
- George Pickens WR36.5%
- Jake Ferguson TE25.7%
- Ryan Flournoy WR20.8%
- Emari Demercado RB14.4%
- Dak Prescott QB12.0%
- KaVontae Turpin WR10.8%
- Brevyn Spann-Ford TE7.8%
- Hunter Luepke FB7.3%
- Luke Schoonmaker TE6.3%
- Jonathan Mingo WR4.4%
- Tyler Goodson RB3.3%
First Touchdown Probability
Washington Commanders- Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB9.7%
- Terry McLaurin WR6.0%
- Jayden Daniels QB5.5%
- Stefon Diggs WR5.4%
- Rachaad White RB5.0%
- Antonio Williams WR3.3%
- John Bates TE2.3%
- Kaytron Allen RB2.1%
- Ben Sinnott TE1.7%
- Dyami Brown WR1.3%
- Jaylin Lane WR1.0%
- Luke McCaffrey WR0.8%
- Treylon Burks WR0.7%
Dallas Cowboys- Javonte Williams RB13.5%
- CeeDee Lamb WR8.9%
- George Pickens WR7.6%
- Jake Ferguson TE5.0%
- Ryan Flournoy WR3.9%
- Emari Demercado RB2.6%
- Dak Prescott QB2.1%
- KaVontae Turpin WR1.9%
- Brevyn Spann-Ford TE1.3%
- Hunter Luepke FB1.3%
- Luke Schoonmaker TE1.1%
- Jonathan Mingo WR0.8%
- Tyler Goodson RB0.6%
Projected Washington Commanders Boxscore
Projected Dallas Cowboys Boxscore
Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Dallas Cowboys
Betting insights
favored at -4.07
Game prediction summary
Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for AT&T Stadium. Based on the current projection, Dallas Cowboys has a clear edge at 65%.
Our model projects Washington Commanders 23 - 28 Dallas Cowboys. That means the score projection points to a one-score game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Dallas Cowboys carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Dallas Cowboys -4.07, while the total sits around 51.03. That total points toward a higher-scoring projection with decent offensive upside.
Player props also add another layer: Javonte Williams of Dallas Cowboys is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 55.4%. The projected box score also highlights Javonte Williams for 82 projected rushing yards.
Venue information
AT&T Stadium is the Dallas Cowboys’ home in Arlington and one of the NFL’s most recognizable mega-venues. It has a retractable roof and hosts football, concerts, boxing, soccer, wrestling, and other major events.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Washington Commanders is Jacory Croskey-Merritt (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 45.4%). He is followed by Terry McLaurin, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 31.4% chance.
On the Dallas Cowboys side, Javonte Williams leads with the highest probability at 55.4% , while CeeDee Lamb follows closely at 41.2% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts Jacory Croskey-Merritt (team-high 9.7% probability) as the most likely to score first for Washington Commanders. Over on the Dallas Cowboys side, Javonte Williams ranks highest with a 13.5% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Washington Commanders, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (highest projected rusher on Washington Commanders) is forecast for 54 rushing yards and 0.45 TDs , while Terry McLaurin (highest projected receiver on Washington Commanders) is pegged for 59 receiving yards and 0.31 TDs .
On Dallas Cowboys, Javonte Williams (highest projected rusher on Dallas Cowboys) leads the ground game with 82 yards and 0.55 TDs , and CeeDee Lamb (highest projected receiver on Dallas Cowboys) tops the passing attack with 80 yards and 0.41 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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