New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars - NFL Prediction (2026-09-27)
Win probabilities
New England Patriots Jacksonville JaguarsWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
New England Patriots Jacksonville JaguarsLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
New England Patriots- Rhamondre Stevenson RB37.6%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB33.7%
- Hunter Henry TE27.2%
- Romeo Doubs WR22.6%
- Mack Hollins WR19.8%
- Drake Maye QB16.4%
- DeMario Douglas WR15.7%
- Kyle Williams WR11.0%
- Eli Raridon TE10.9%
- Efton Chism WR3.4%
- Corey Kiner RB2.3%
- Reggie Gilliam FB0.9%
- Cameron Latu TE0.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars- Bhayshul Tuten RB38.0%
- Parker Washington WR33.7%
- Chris Rodriguez RB30.2%
- Trevor Lawrence QB28.1%
- Brian Thomas WR17.2%
- Brenton Strange TE15.6%
- Jakobi Meyers WR13.4%
- LeQuint Allen RB5.6%
- Josh Cameron WR4.4%
- Travis Hunter WR3.4%
- Nate Boerkircher TE3.1%
- Quintin Morris TE1.1%
- Ameer Abdullah RB0.9%
First Touchdown Probability
New England Patriots- Rhamondre Stevenson RB8.3%
- TreVeyon Henderson RB7.3%
- Hunter Henry TE5.6%
- Romeo Doubs WR4.5%
- Mack Hollins WR3.9%
- Drake Maye QB3.1%
- DeMario Douglas WR3.0%
- Kyle Williams WR2.1%
- Eli Raridon TE2.0%
- Efton Chism WR0.6%
- Corey Kiner RB0.4%
- Reggie Gilliam FB0.2%
- Cameron Latu TE0.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars- Bhayshul Tuten RB10.2%
- Parker Washington WR8.7%
- Chris Rodriguez RB7.6%
- Trevor Lawrence QB7.0%
- Brian Thomas WR4.0%
- Brenton Strange TE3.6%
- Jakobi Meyers WR3.1%
- LeQuint Allen RB1.2%
- Josh Cameron WR1.0%
- Travis Hunter WR0.7%
- Nate Boerkircher TE0.7%
- Quintin Morris TE0.2%
- Ameer Abdullah RB0.2%
Projected New England Patriots Boxscore
Projected Jacksonville Jaguars Boxscore
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Betting insights
favored at -2.94
Game prediction summary
New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for EverBank Stadium. Based on the current projection, Jacksonville Jaguars has a clear edge at 61%.
Our model projects New England Patriots 22 - 25 Jacksonville Jaguars. That means the score projection points to a field-goal type game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Jacksonville Jaguars carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.94, while the total sits around 46.07. That total points toward a fairly balanced scoring expectation.
Player props also add another layer: Bhayshul Tuten of Jacksonville Jaguars is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 38.0%. The projected box score also highlights Parker Washington for 63 projected receiving yards.
Venue information
EverBank Stadium is the home of the Jacksonville Jaguars and a major venue for football, concerts, and events in downtown Jacksonville. It is part of a wider stadium district that is being modernized for the Jaguars’ long-term future.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from New England Patriots is Rhamondre Stevenson (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 37.6%). He is followed by TreVeyon Henderson, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 33.7% chance.
On the Jacksonville Jaguars side, Bhayshul Tuten leads with the highest probability at 38.0% , while Parker Washington follows closely at 33.7% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts Rhamondre Stevenson (team-high 8.3% probability) as the most likely to score first for New England Patriots. Over on the Jacksonville Jaguars side, Bhayshul Tuten ranks highest with a 10.2% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For New England Patriots, Rhamondre Stevenson (highest projected rusher on New England Patriots) is forecast for 49 rushing yards and 0.38 TDs , while Mack Hollins (highest projected receiver on New England Patriots) is pegged for 40 receiving yards and 0.20 TDs .
On Jacksonville Jaguars, Bhayshul Tuten (highest projected rusher on Jacksonville Jaguars) leads the ground game with 44 yards and 0.38 TDs , and Parker Washington (highest projected receiver on Jacksonville Jaguars) tops the passing attack with 63 yards and 0.34 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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