New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars - NFL Prediction (2026-09-27)
Win probabilities
New England Patriots Jacksonville JaguarsWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
New England Patriots Jacksonville JaguarsLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
New England Patriots- TreVeyon Henderson RB37.3%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB35.0%
- Hunter Henry TE25.2%
- Drake Maye QB21.9%
- Romeo Doubs WR21.4%
- Mack Hollins WR17.9%
- DeMario Douglas WR15.7%
- Kyle Williams WR9.3%
- Eli Raridon TE7.9%
- Efton Chism WR4.8%
- Corey Kiner RB3.7%
- Cameron Latu TE3.2%
- Reggie Gilliam FB3.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars- Bhayshul Tuten RB39.0%
- Parker Washington WR34.5%
- Chris Rodriguez RB24.3%
- Trevor Lawrence QB23.8%
- Brenton Strange TE22.4%
- Brian Thomas WR22.0%
- Jakobi Meyers WR21.4%
- Ameer Abdullah RB8.6%
- Josh Cameron WR7.1%
- Nate Boerkircher TE6.8%
- LeQuint Allen RB6.2%
- Travis Hunter WR5.8%
- Tanner Koziol TE3.8%
- Quintin Morris TE3.4%
First Touchdown Probability
New England Patriots- TreVeyon Henderson RB8.2%
- Rhamondre Stevenson RB7.5%
- Hunter Henry TE5.1%
- Drake Maye QB4.3%
- Romeo Doubs WR4.2%
- Mack Hollins WR3.5%
- DeMario Douglas WR3.0%
- Kyle Williams WR1.7%
- Eli Raridon TE1.4%
- Efton Chism WR0.9%
- Corey Kiner RB0.7%
- Cameron Latu TE0.6%
- Reggie Gilliam FB0.6%
Jacksonville Jaguars- Bhayshul Tuten RB9.1%
- Parker Washington WR7.8%
- Chris Rodriguez RB5.1%
- Trevor Lawrence QB5.0%
- Brenton Strange TE4.7%
- Brian Thomas WR4.6%
- Jakobi Meyers WR4.4%
- Ameer Abdullah RB1.7%
- Josh Cameron WR1.4%
- Nate Boerkircher TE1.3%
- LeQuint Allen RB1.2%
- Travis Hunter WR1.1%
- Tanner Koziol TE0.7%
- Quintin Morris TE0.6%
Projected New England Patriots Boxscore
Projected Jacksonville Jaguars Boxscore
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Betting insights
favored at -2.81
Game prediction summary
New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for EverBank Stadium. Based on the current projection, Jacksonville Jaguars has a clear edge at 60%.
Our model projects New England Patriots 22 - 24 Jacksonville Jaguars. That means the score projection points to a field-goal type game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Jacksonville Jaguars carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.81, while the total sits around 45.80. That total points toward a fairly balanced scoring expectation.
Player props also add another layer: Bhayshul Tuten of Jacksonville Jaguars is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 39.0%. The projected box score also highlights Parker Washington for 71 projected receiving yards.
Venue information
EverBank Stadium is the home of the Jacksonville Jaguars and a major venue for football, concerts, and events in downtown Jacksonville. It is part of a wider stadium district that is being modernized for the Jaguars’ long-term future.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from New England Patriots is TreVeyon Henderson (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 37.3%). He is followed by Rhamondre Stevenson, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 35.0% chance.
On the Jacksonville Jaguars side, Bhayshul Tuten leads with the highest probability at 39.0% , while Parker Washington follows closely at 34.5% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts TreVeyon Henderson (team-high 8.2% probability) as the most likely to score first for New England Patriots. Over on the Jacksonville Jaguars side, Bhayshul Tuten ranks highest with a 9.1% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For New England Patriots, TreVeyon Henderson (highest projected rusher on New England Patriots) is forecast for 45 rushing yards and 0.37 TDs , while Romeo Doubs (highest projected receiver on New England Patriots) is pegged for 47 receiving yards and 0.21 TDs .
On Jacksonville Jaguars, Bhayshul Tuten (highest projected rusher on Jacksonville Jaguars) leads the ground game with 55 yards and 0.39 TDs , and Parker Washington (highest projected receiver on Jacksonville Jaguars) tops the passing attack with 71 yards and 0.35 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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