Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts - NFL Prediction (2026-09-27)
Win probabilities
Houston Texans Indianapolis ColtsWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
Houston Texans Indianapolis ColtsLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
Houston Texans- David Montgomery RB58.3%
- Kayshon Boutte WR31.4%
- Woody Marks RB30.0%
- Dalton Schultz TE29.5%
- Jaylin Noel WR27.1%
- Xavier Hutchinson WR25.9%
- Foster Moreau TE16.2%
- C.J. Stroud QB11.2%
- Jared Wayne WR10.8%
- Marlin Klein TE9.7%
- Cade Stover TE6.4%
- British Brooks RB0.7%
Indianapolis Colts- Jonathan Taylor RB57.9%
- Alec Pierce WR30.5%
- Tyler Warren TE30.3%
- Josh Downs WR26.8%
- Keenan Allen WR16.9%
- Daniel Jones QB11.3%
- Seth McGowan RB9.6%
- Mo Alie-Cox TE3.2%
- Laquon Treadwell WR2.9%
- Drew Ogletree TE1.9%
- Deion Burks WR0.8%
First Touchdown Probability
Houston Texans- David Montgomery RB13.2%
- Kayshon Boutte WR5.7%
- Woody Marks RB5.4%
- Dalton Schultz TE5.3%
- Jaylin Noel WR4.8%
- Xavier Hutchinson WR4.5%
- Foster Moreau TE2.7%
- C.J. Stroud QB1.8%
- Jared Wayne WR1.7%
- Marlin Klein TE1.5%
- Cade Stover TE1.0%
- British Brooks RB0.1%
Indianapolis Colts- Jonathan Taylor RB16.0%
- Alec Pierce WR6.7%
- Tyler Warren TE6.7%
- Josh Downs WR5.8%
- Keenan Allen WR3.4%
- Daniel Jones QB2.2%
- Seth McGowan RB1.9%
- Mo Alie-Cox TE0.6%
- Laquon Treadwell WR0.5%
- Drew Ogletree TE0.3%
- Deion Burks WR0.1%
Projected Houston Texans Boxscore
Projected Indianapolis Colts Boxscore
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Indianapolis Colts
Betting insights
favored at -1.68
Game prediction summary
Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for Lucas Oil Stadium. Based on the current projection, Houston Texans has a slight edge at 57%.
Our model projects Houston Texans 23 - 22 Indianapolis Colts. That means the score projection points to a field-goal type game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Houston Texans carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Houston Texans -1.68, while the total sits around 44.74. That total points toward a fairly balanced scoring expectation.
Player props also add another layer: David Montgomery of Houston Texans is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 58.3%. The projected box score also highlights Jonathan Taylor for 78 projected rushing yards.
Venue information
Lucas Oil Stadium is the Indianapolis Colts’ home and a major indoor event venue in downtown Indianapolis. Its signature features are the retractable roof and large operable window.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Houston Texans is David Montgomery (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 58.3%). He is followed by Kayshon Boutte, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 31.4% chance.
On the Indianapolis Colts side, Jonathan Taylor leads with the highest probability at 57.9% , while Alec Pierce follows closely at 30.5% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts David Montgomery (team-high 13.2% probability) as the most likely to score first for Houston Texans. Over on the Indianapolis Colts side, Jonathan Taylor ranks highest with a 16.0% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Houston Texans, David Montgomery (highest projected rusher on Houston Texans) is forecast for 64 rushing yards and 0.58 TDs , while Kayshon Boutte (highest projected receiver on Houston Texans) is pegged for 38 receiving yards and 0.31 TDs .
On Indianapolis Colts, Jonathan Taylor (highest projected rusher on Indianapolis Colts) leads the ground game with 78 yards and 0.58 TDs , and Alec Pierce (highest projected receiver on Indianapolis Colts) tops the passing attack with 49 yards and 0.30 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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