Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills - NFL Prediction (2026-09-18)
Win probabilities
Detroit Lions Buffalo BillsWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
Detroit Lions Buffalo BillsLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
Detroit Lions- Jahmyr Gibbs RB71.5%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR42.8%
- Jameson Williams WR30.9%
- Sam LaPorta TE27.9%
- Isaac TeSlaa WR13.6%
- Sione Vaki RB12.6%
- Brock Wright TE7.0%
- Jared Goff QB5.9%
- Jacob Saylors RB4.8%
- Tay Martin WR2.9%
- Tom Kennedy WR2.5%
- Tyler Conklin TE2.4%
Buffalo Bills- James Cook RB54.4%
- Josh Allen QB48.8%
- DJ Moore WR35.7%
- Dalton Kincaid TE31.5%
- Khalil Shakir WR26.2%
- Ty Johnson RB17.3%
- Ray Davis RB15.9%
- Keon Coleman WR14.6%
- Dawson Knox TE14.3%
- Joshua Palmer WR9.8%
- Jackson Hawes TE7.6%
- Skyler Bell WR2.6%
First Touchdown Probability
Detroit Lions- Jahmyr Gibbs RB17.9%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown WR8.0%
- Jameson Williams WR5.3%
- Sam LaPorta TE4.7%
- Isaac TeSlaa WR2.1%
- Sione Vaki RB1.9%
- Brock Wright TE1.0%
- Jared Goff QB0.9%
- Jacob Saylors RB0.7%
- Tay Martin WR0.4%
- Tom Kennedy WR0.4%
- Tyler Conklin TE0.3%
Buffalo Bills- James Cook RB11.4%
- Josh Allen QB9.7%
- DJ Moore WR6.4%
- Dalton Kincaid TE5.5%
- Khalil Shakir WR4.4%
- Ty Johnson RB2.8%
- Ray Davis RB2.5%
- Keon Coleman WR2.3%
- Dawson Knox TE2.2%
- Joshua Palmer WR1.5%
- Jackson Hawes TE1.2%
- Skyler Bell WR0.4%
Projected Detroit Lions Boxscore
Projected Buffalo Bills Boxscore
Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Buffalo Bills
Betting insights
favored at -5.51
Game prediction summary
Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for New Highmark Stadium. Based on the current projection, Buffalo Bills has a clear edge at 69%.
Our model projects Detroit Lions 24 - 29 Buffalo Bills. That means the score projection points to a one-score game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Buffalo Bills carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Buffalo Bills -5.51, while the total sits around 52.98. That total points toward a higher-scoring projection with decent offensive upside.
Player props also add another layer: Jahmyr Gibbs of Detroit Lions is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 71.5%. The projected box score also highlights Jahmyr Gibbs for 92 projected rushing yards.
Venue information
New Highmark Stadium is the Buffalo Bills’ new stadium project in Orchard Park, built to replace the team’s previous Highmark Stadium. It is expected to become the Bills’ long-term home from the 2026 NFL season.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Detroit Lions is Jahmyr Gibbs (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 71.5%). He is followed by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 42.8% chance.
On the Buffalo Bills side, James Cook leads with the highest probability at 54.4% , while Josh Allen follows closely at 48.8% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts Jahmyr Gibbs (team-high 17.9% probability) as the most likely to score first for Detroit Lions. Over on the Buffalo Bills side, James Cook ranks highest with a 11.4% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Detroit Lions, Jahmyr Gibbs (highest projected rusher on Detroit Lions) is forecast for 92 rushing yards and 0.71 TDs , while Amon-Ra St. Brown (highest projected receiver on Detroit Lions) is pegged for 85 receiving yards and 0.43 TDs .
On Buffalo Bills, James Cook (highest projected rusher on Buffalo Bills) leads the ground game with 86 yards and 0.54 TDs , and DJ Moore (highest projected receiver on Buffalo Bills) tops the passing attack with 67 yards and 0.36 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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