Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans - NFL Prediction (2026-09-13)
Win probabilities
Buffalo Bills Houston TexansWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
Buffalo Bills Houston TexansLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
Buffalo Bills- James Cook RB49.5%
- Josh Allen QB40.3%
- DJ Moore WR27.1%
- Dalton Kincaid TE23.1%
- Khalil Shakir WR22.1%
- Ty Johnson RB14.5%
- Ray Davis RB13.8%
- Dawson Knox TE13.8%
- Keon Coleman WR13.3%
- Joshua Palmer WR7.3%
- Jackson Hawes TE6.7%
- Skyler Bell WR4.5%
Houston Texans- David Montgomery RB49.2%
- Nico Collins WR35.4%
- Woody Marks RB27.8%
- Kayshon Boutte WR22.5%
- Dalton Schultz TE22.4%
- Xavier Hutchinson WR15.8%
- Jaylin Noel WR14.5%
- C.J. Stroud QB9.7%
- Marlin Klein TE6.4%
- Foster Moreau TE5.5%
- Cade Stover TE4.7%
First Touchdown Probability
Buffalo Bills- James Cook RB11.8%
- Josh Allen QB8.9%
- DJ Moore WR5.5%
- Dalton Kincaid TE4.5%
- Khalil Shakir WR4.3%
- Ty Johnson RB2.7%
- Ray Davis RB2.6%
- Dawson Knox TE2.6%
- Keon Coleman WR2.5%
- Joshua Palmer WR1.3%
- Jackson Hawes TE1.2%
- Skyler Bell WR0.8%
Houston Texans- David Montgomery RB11.7%
- Nico Collins WR7.6%
- Woody Marks RB5.6%
- Kayshon Boutte WR4.4%
- Dalton Schultz TE4.4%
- Xavier Hutchinson WR3.0%
- Jaylin Noel WR2.7%
- C.J. Stroud QB1.8%
- Marlin Klein TE1.2%
- Foster Moreau TE1.0%
- Cade Stover TE0.8%
Projected Buffalo Bills Boxscore
Projected Houston Texans Boxscore
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Houston Texans
Betting insights
favored at -2.10
Game prediction summary
Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for NRG Stadium. Based on the current projection, Buffalo Bills has a slight edge at 58%.
Our model projects Buffalo Bills 24 - 22 Houston Texans. That means the score projection points to a field-goal type game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Buffalo Bills carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Buffalo Bills -2.10, while the total sits around 46.31. That total points toward a fairly balanced scoring expectation.
Player props also add another layer: James Cook of Buffalo Bills is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 49.5%. The projected box score also highlights James Cook for 78 projected rushing yards.
Venue information
NRG Stadium is the Houston Texans’ home and part of the larger NRG Park complex. It was the NFL’s first retractable-roof stadium and is also strongly associated with the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Buffalo Bills is James Cook (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 49.5%). He is followed by Josh Allen, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 40.3% chance.
On the Houston Texans side, David Montgomery leads with the highest probability at 49.2% , while Nico Collins follows closely at 35.4% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts James Cook (team-high 11.8% probability) as the most likely to score first for Buffalo Bills. Over on the Houston Texans side, David Montgomery ranks highest with a 11.7% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Buffalo Bills, James Cook (highest projected rusher on Buffalo Bills) is forecast for 78 rushing yards and 0.50 TDs , while DJ Moore (highest projected receiver on Buffalo Bills) is pegged for 50 receiving yards and 0.27 TDs .
On Houston Texans, David Montgomery (highest projected rusher on Houston Texans) leads the ground game with 58 yards and 0.49 TDs , and Nico Collins (highest projected receiver on Houston Texans) tops the passing attack with 73 yards and 0.35 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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