Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers - NFL Prediction (2026-09-13)
Win probabilities
Atlanta Falcons Pittsburgh SteelersWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
Atlanta Falcons Pittsburgh SteelersLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
Atlanta Falcons- Bijan Robinson RB48.5%
- Drake London WR27.5%
- Kyle Pitts TE18.6%
- Brian Robinson RB15.9%
- Jahan Dotson WR11.6%
- Olamide Zaccheaus WR9.4%
- Zachariah Branch WR6.8%
- Austin Hooper TE6.6%
- Cooper Rush QB5.1%
- Charlie Woerner TE2.3%
Pittsburgh Steelers- Rico Dowdle RB36.0%
- Jaylen Warren RB35.9%
- DK Metcalf WR32.8%
- Michael Pittman WR27.5%
- Pat Freiermuth TE20.0%
- Darnell Washington TE13.1%
- Germie Bernard WR13.0%
- Roman Wilson WR9.5%
- Aaron Rodgers QB5.0%
- Eli Heidenreich RB4.5%
- Ben Skowronek WR4.1%
- Robert Tonyan TE3.8%
- Riley Nowakowski FB3.6%
- Kaden Wetjen WR3.6%
First Touchdown Probability
Atlanta Falcons- Bijan Robinson RB14.6%
- Drake London WR7.1%
- Kyle Pitts TE4.5%
- Brian Robinson RB3.8%
- Jahan Dotson WR2.7%
- Olamide Zaccheaus WR2.2%
- Zachariah Branch WR1.6%
- Austin Hooper TE1.5%
- Cooper Rush QB1.1%
- Charlie Woerner TE0.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers- Rico Dowdle RB9.5%
- Jaylen Warren RB9.5%
- DK Metcalf WR8.5%
- Michael Pittman WR6.8%
- Pat Freiermuth TE4.8%
- Darnell Washington TE3.0%
- Germie Bernard WR3.0%
- Roman Wilson WR2.1%
- Aaron Rodgers QB1.1%
- Eli Heidenreich RB1.0%
- Ben Skowronek WR0.9%
- Robert Tonyan TE0.8%
- Riley Nowakowski FB0.8%
- Kaden Wetjen WR0.8%
Projected Atlanta Falcons Boxscore
Projected Pittsburgh Steelers Boxscore
Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Betting insights
favored at -6.23
Game prediction summary
Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for Acrisure Stadium. Based on the current projection, Pittsburgh Steelers is a strong favourite at 71%.
Our model projects Atlanta Falcons 17 - 23 Pittsburgh Steelers. That means the score projection points to a one-score game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Pittsburgh Steelers carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Pittsburgh Steelers -6.23, while the total sits around 40.33. That total points toward a lower-scoring, more defence-led projection.
Player props also add another layer: Bijan Robinson of Atlanta Falcons is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 48.5%. The projected box score also highlights Bijan Robinson for 82 projected rushing yards.
Venue information
Acrisure Stadium is the home of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Pitt Panthers football, located on Pittsburgh’s North Shore. Its open south end frames views of downtown Pittsburgh and reflects the city’s steel heritage.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Atlanta Falcons is Bijan Robinson (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 48.5%). He is followed by Drake London, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 27.5% chance.
On the Pittsburgh Steelers side, Rico Dowdle leads with the highest probability at 36.0% , while Jaylen Warren follows closely at 35.9% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts Bijan Robinson (team-high 14.6% probability) as the most likely to score first for Atlanta Falcons. Over on the Pittsburgh Steelers side, Rico Dowdle ranks highest with a 9.5% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Atlanta Falcons, Bijan Robinson (highest projected rusher on Atlanta Falcons) is forecast for 82 rushing yards and 0.49 TDs , while Drake London (highest projected receiver on Atlanta Falcons) is pegged for 60 receiving yards and 0.28 TDs .
On Pittsburgh Steelers, Rico Dowdle (highest projected rusher on Pittsburgh Steelers) leads the ground game with 50 yards and 0.36 TDs , and DK Metcalf (highest projected receiver on Pittsburgh Steelers) tops the passing attack with 53 yards and 0.33 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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