Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs - NFL Prediction (2026-09-15)
Win probabilities
Denver Broncos Kansas City ChiefsWin probability is based on our predictive model.
Predicted score
Fair odds (decimal)
Denver Broncos Kansas City ChiefsLower decimal odds indicate higher implied value.
Canadian Moneyline Odds
Anytime Touchdown Probability
Denver Broncos- J.K. Dobbins RB34.1%
- Jaylen Waddle WR30.4%
- RJ Harvey RB27.6%
- Courtland Sutton WR25.2%
- Pat Bryant WR16.3%
- Bo Nix QB15.9%
- Evan Engram TE11.9%
- Marvin Mims WR10.7%
- Jonah Coleman RB9.7%
- Adam Trautman TE8.3%
- Troy Franklin WR7.7%
- Tyler Badie RB7.0%
- Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR6.0%
- Nate Adkins TE3.0%
- Dallen Bentley TE2.3%
Kansas City Chiefs- Kenneth Walker RB45.3%
- Rashee Rice WR30.9%
- Travis Kelce TE24.8%
- Xavier Worthy WR20.8%
- Tyquan Thornton WR13.2%
- Emmett Johnson RB12.9%
- Patrick Mahomes QB10.5%
- Noah Gray TE7.9%
- Cyrus Allen WR6.8%
- Jalen Royals WR6.4%
- Brashard Smith RB5.5%
- Jake Briningstool TE2.7%
- Nikko Remigio WR2.2%
First Touchdown Probability
Denver Broncos- J.K. Dobbins RB7.1%
- Jaylen Waddle WR6.2%
- RJ Harvey RB5.5%
- Courtland Sutton WR4.9%
- Pat Bryant WR3.0%
- Bo Nix QB3.0%
- Evan Engram TE2.2%
- Marvin Mims WR1.9%
- Jonah Coleman RB1.7%
- Adam Trautman TE1.5%
- Troy Franklin WR1.4%
- Tyler Badie RB1.2%
- Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR1.1%
- Nate Adkins TE0.5%
- Dallen Bentley TE0.4%
Kansas City Chiefs- Kenneth Walker RB13.3%
- Rashee Rice WR8.2%
- Travis Kelce TE6.3%
- Xavier Worthy WR5.2%
- Tyquan Thornton WR3.1%
- Emmett Johnson RB3.1%
- Patrick Mahomes QB2.4%
- Noah Gray TE1.8%
- Cyrus Allen WR1.5%
- Jalen Royals WR1.5%
- Brashard Smith RB1.3%
- Jake Briningstool TE0.6%
- Nikko Remigio WR0.5%
Projected Denver Broncos Boxscore
Projected Kansas City Chiefs Boxscore
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Game Breakdown
Matchup details
vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Betting insights
favored at -2.24
Game prediction summary
Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs meet on loading..., loading..., with the game listed for GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Based on the current projection, Kansas City Chiefs has a slight edge at 59%.
Our model projects Denver Broncos 20 - 22 Kansas City Chiefs. That means the score projection points to a field-goal type game, rather than a simple yes-or-no favourite call. Kansas City Chiefs carries the stronger win probability, but the projected score still gives useful context for how close the matchup may be.
From a betting angle, the current projection has the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -2.24, while the total sits around 42.67. That total points toward a fairly balanced scoring expectation.
Player props also add another layer: Kenneth Walker of Kansas City Chiefs is one of the main touchdown names to watch at 45.3%. The projected box score also highlights Kenneth Walker for 68 projected rushing yards.
Venue information
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is the Kansas City Chiefs’ home and one of the NFL’s most famous outdoor football venues. It is especially known for its crowd noise and strong tailgating culture.
Touchdown Scorer Predictions
For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Denver Broncos is J.K. Dobbins (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 34.1%). He is followed by Jaylen Waddle, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 30.4% chance.
On the Kansas City Chiefs side, Kenneth Walker leads with the highest probability at 45.3% , while Rashee Rice follows closely at 30.9% .
For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts J.K. Dobbins (team-high 7.1% probability) as the most likely to score first for Denver Broncos. Over on the Kansas City Chiefs side, Kenneth Walker ranks highest with a 13.3% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.
Box Score Predictions
When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Denver Broncos, J.K. Dobbins (highest projected rusher on Denver Broncos) is forecast for 53 rushing yards and 0.34 TDs , while Jaylen Waddle (highest projected receiver on Denver Broncos) is pegged for 62 receiving yards and 0.30 TDs .
On Kansas City Chiefs, Kenneth Walker (highest projected rusher on Kansas City Chiefs) leads the ground game with 68 yards and 0.45 TDs , and Rashee Rice (highest projected receiver on Kansas City Chiefs) tops the passing attack with 59 yards and 0.31 TDs .
All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.
New to NFL?
Official NFL resourcesIf you are new to American football, these official NFL resources are a good place to learn the basics, understand common terms, and check the rules behind key game situations.
NFL Football Operations — Rookie’s Guide
A good first stop for a complete NFL beginner. It explains the basic structure of the game and points readers toward other official learning pages, including rules, formations, terms, and video explanations.
2NFL Football Operations — Learn the Game
The main official NFL learning hub. It is useful for understanding how football works beyond just scores, including rules, player positions, formations, game terms, officiating, and the technology used in the league.
3Official NFL Rulebook
This is the official source for NFL playing rules. It is not the easiest place for a total beginner to start, but it is the best reference when someone wants to check the exact wording of a rule.
4NFL Video Rulebook
A more beginner-friendly way to understand penalties and rule situations. It uses video examples, which makes confusing calls much easier to understand than reading the full rulebook alone.
5NFL Terms Glossary
A useful reference for common NFL words and phrases. It helps new fans understand terms like down, snap, punt, blitz, holding, safety, formation, and many other words commentators use during games.
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