Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars - NFL Prediction (2025-09-21)

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Houston Texans
vs
Jacksonville Jaguars

Win probabilities

Houston Texans
43%
Jacksonville Jaguars
57%

Predicted score

21 - 23
Spread (Team 1 - Team 2): -1.82
Projected total: 44.42

Fair odds (decimal)

Houston Texans: 2.33
Jacksonville Jaguars: 1.75

Canadian Moneyline Odds

Houston Texans
+105
Jacksonville Jaguars
-130
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Anytime Touchdown Probability

Houston Texans
  • Nick Chubb RB45.6%
  • Nico Collins WR37.2%
  • Dalton Schultz TE22.0%
  • Christian Kirk WR21.5%
  • Woody Marks RB16.7%
  • Jayden Higgins WR14.2%
  • Xavier Hutchinson WR12.4%
  • C.J. Stroud QB12.3%
  • Dare Ogunbowale RB11.6%
  • Jaylin Noel WR9.1%
  • Dameon Pierce RB1.9%
Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Travis Etienne RB39.4%
  • Brian Thomas WR36.8%
  • Bhayshul Tuten RB28.5%
  • Travis Hunter WR23.9%
  • Dyami Brown WR20.6%
  • Brenton Strange TE17.5%
  • Trevor Lawrence QB16.0%
  • Parker Washington WR11.2%
  • LeQuint Allen RB10.1%
  • Tim Patrick WR6.1%
  • Johnny Mundt TE4.8%
  • Hunter Long TE2.5%

First Touchdown Probability

Houston Texans
  • Nick Chubb RB10.5%
  • Nico Collins WR8.0%
  • Dalton Schultz TE4.3%
  • Christian Kirk WR4.2%
  • Woody Marks RB3.2%
  • Jayden Higgins WR2.6%
  • Xavier Hutchinson WR2.3%
  • C.J. Stroud QB2.3%
  • Dare Ogunbowale RB2.1%
  • Jaylin Noel WR1.6%
  • Dameon Pierce RB0.3%
Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Travis Etienne RB9.9%
  • Brian Thomas WR9.1%
  • Bhayshul Tuten RB6.7%
  • Travis Hunter WR5.4%
  • Dyami Brown WR4.6%
  • Brenton Strange TE3.8%
  • Trevor Lawrence QB3.5%
  • Parker Washington WR2.4%
  • LeQuint Allen RB2.1%
  • Tim Patrick WR1.2%
  • Johnny Mundt TE1.0%
  • Hunter Long TE0.5%

Projected Houston Texans Boxscore

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Projected Jacksonville Jaguars Boxscore

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Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Game Breakdown

Matchup details

  • Teams: Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Date: loading...
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Betting insights

Spread: Houston Texans favored at -1.82. Total: 44.42.

Game prediction summary

Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars face off on loading..., loading..., in a matchup that's drawn attention from bettors and fans alike.

We're projecting a final score of Houston Texans 21 – 23 Jacksonville Jaguars, with win probabilities leaning 57% in favor of Jacksonville Jaguars. Current odds list the spread at -1.82, with the total set at 44.42.

Touchdown Scorer Predictions

For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Houston Texans is Nick Chubb (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 45.6%). He is followed by Nico Collins, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 37.2% chance.

On the Jacksonville Jaguars side, Travis Etienne leads with the highest probability at 39.4% , while Brian Thomas follows closely at 36.8% .

For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts Nick Chubb (team-high 10.5% probability) as the most likely to score first for Houston Texans. Over on the Jacksonville Jaguars side, Travis Etienne ranks highest with a 9.9% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.

Box Score Predictions

When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Houston Texans, Nick Chubb (highest projected rusher on Houston Texans) is forecast for 62 rushing yards and 0.46 TDs , while Nico Collins (highest projected receiver on Houston Texans) is pegged for 74 receiving yards and 0.37 TDs .

On Jacksonville Jaguars, Travis Etienne (highest projected rusher on Jacksonville Jaguars) leads the ground game with 56 yards and 0.39 TDs , and Brian Thomas (highest projected receiver on Jacksonville Jaguars) tops the passing attack with 70 yards and 0.37 TDs .

All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.

Responsible betting

Sports betting should always be fun - a form of entertainment, not a way to solve financial problems. If you're finding that betting is causing stress or impacting your budget, take a step back. Never wager more than you can afford to lose.

Your mental well-being matters. Chasing losses or trying to "win it all back" is a warning sign. If friends or family raise concerns, take them seriously - they're often the first to notice when something's wrong.

If betting no longer feels like a choice or if it's affecting your life in a negative way, help is available. Visit Gambling Therapy for free, confidential support. Their trained advisors are available 24/7, and you'll also find peer support groups to talk with others who understand what you're going through.

Bet smart. Stay in control. Your well-being comes first.

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