Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots - NFL Prediction (2025-09-21)

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Pittsburgh Steelers
vs
New England Patriots

Win probabilities

Pittsburgh Steelers
57%
New England Patriots
43%

Predicted score

23 - 21
Spread (Team 1 - Team 2): 1.84
Projected total: 43.60

Fair odds (decimal)

Pittsburgh Steelers: 1.75
New England Patriots: 2.33

Canadian Moneyline Odds

Pittsburgh Steelers
-133
New England Patriots
+108
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Anytime Touchdown Probability

Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Jaylen Warren RB40.9%
  • DK Metcalf WR38.4%
  • Kenneth Gainwell RB32.9%
  • Calvin Austin WR27.5%
  • Pat Freiermuth TE22.2%
  • Jonnu Smith TE20.0%
  • Roman Wilson WR12.9%
  • Kaleb Johnson RB7.6%
  • Darnell Washington TE6.4%
  • Aaron Rodgers QB6.2%
  • Connor Heyward TE4.2%
New England Patriots
  • Rhamondre Stevenson RB38.0%
  • TreVeyon Henderson RB30.4%
  • Stefon Diggs WR24.7%
  • Hunter Henry TE22.4%
  • Drake Maye QB19.9%
  • Kayshon Boutte WR19.2%
  • DeMario Douglas WR15.3%
  • Mack Hollins WR13.0%
  • Antonio Gibson RB12.2%
  • Austin Hooper TE9.0%
  • Kyle Williams WR5.3%

First Touchdown Probability

Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Jaylen Warren RB9.7%
  • DK Metcalf WR8.9%
  • Kenneth Gainwell RB7.4%
  • Calvin Austin WR5.9%
  • Pat Freiermuth TE4.6%
  • Jonnu Smith TE4.1%
  • Roman Wilson WR2.5%
  • Kaleb Johnson RB1.5%
  • Darnell Washington TE1.2%
  • Aaron Rodgers QB1.2%
  • Connor Heyward TE0.8%
New England Patriots
  • Rhamondre Stevenson RB8.7%
  • TreVeyon Henderson RB6.6%
  • Stefon Diggs WR5.2%
  • Hunter Henry TE4.6%
  • Drake Maye QB4.0%
  • Kayshon Boutte WR3.9%
  • DeMario Douglas WR3.0%
  • Mack Hollins WR2.5%
  • Antonio Gibson RB2.4%
  • Austin Hooper TE1.7%
  • Kyle Williams WR1.0%

Projected Pittsburgh Steelers Boxscore

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Projected New England Patriots Boxscore

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots: Game Breakdown

Matchup details

  • Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
  • Date: loading...
  • Time: loading...

Betting insights

Spread: New England Patriots favored at -1.84. Total: 43.60.

Game prediction summary

Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots face off on loading..., loading..., in a matchup that's drawn attention from bettors and fans alike.

We're projecting a final score of Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – 21 New England Patriots, with win probabilities leaning 57% in favor of Pittsburgh Steelers. Current odds list the spread at -1.84, with the total set at 43.60.

Touchdown Scorer Predictions

For Anytime Touchdown Scorer bets, the top option from Pittsburgh Steelers is Jaylen Warren (the player with the highest anytime touchdown probability on the team at 40.9%). He is followed by DK Metcalf, who also poses a strong scoring threat with a 38.4% chance.

On the New England Patriots side, Rhamondre Stevenson leads with the highest probability at 38.0% , while TreVeyon Henderson follows closely at 30.4% .

For First Touchdown Scorer odds, our data again puts Jaylen Warren (team-high 9.7% probability) as the most likely to score first for Pittsburgh Steelers. Over on the New England Patriots side, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks highest with a 8.7% chance to be the first touchdown scorer in the game.

Box Score Predictions

When box score data is available, we spotlight each team's leaders by projection. For Pittsburgh Steelers, Jaylen Warren (highest projected rusher on Pittsburgh Steelers) is forecast for 57 rushing yards and 0.41 TDs , while DK Metcalf (highest projected receiver on Pittsburgh Steelers) is pegged for 64 receiving yards and 0.38 TDs .

On New England Patriots, Rhamondre Stevenson (highest projected rusher on New England Patriots) leads the ground game with 45 yards and 0.38 TDs , and Stefon Diggs (highest projected receiver on New England Patriots) tops the passing attack with 48 yards and 0.25 TDs .

All stat lines are simulation-driven and update as new information becomes available.

Responsible betting

Sports betting should always be fun - a form of entertainment, not a way to solve financial problems. If you're finding that betting is causing stress or impacting your budget, take a step back. Never wager more than you can afford to lose.

Your mental well-being matters. Chasing losses or trying to "win it all back" is a warning sign. If friends or family raise concerns, take them seriously - they're often the first to notice when something's wrong.

If betting no longer feels like a choice or if it's affecting your life in a negative way, help is available. Visit Gambling Therapy for free, confidential support. Their trained advisors are available 24/7, and you'll also find peer support groups to talk with others who understand what you're going through.

Bet smart. Stay in control. Your well-being comes first.

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